The Rise of the Southern Economies: Implications for the WTO-Multilateral Trading System

The rise of the emerging southern economies ? China, India, Brazil, and South Africa (CIBS) ? as both economic and political actors, is having significant and far-reaching impact on the world economy. Notwithstanding the increasing amount of study and research, there are still important knowledge-gaps with respect to a range of likely consequences of the dynamism of the Southern Economies. One of these gaps concerns the implications for the WTO-multilateral trading system. The present paper proposes a review of the southern participation in the multilateral integration process and suggests a methodology to assess the impact of CIBS? rise on the future of the WTO system. Through the analysis of the trajectories of ?impact? of the trade channel, the paper draws some suggestive remarks.international trade, multilateral trading system, World Trade Organization, developing countries, China, Brazil, India, South Africa

Trade patterns and trade clusters: China, India, Brazil and South Africa in the global trading

The present paper analyzes the evolution of the specialization and trade patterns of China, India, Brazil and South Africa (CIBS) and other WTO countries. It aims to provide an answer to the following questions: is there a tendency to a multi-polarization of trade patterns? If so, is CIBS’ rise leading to new clusters with or among CIBS or other emerging countries? Also, ultimately, does this multi-polarization have a regional element to it? The paper deals with the above questions by presenting: i) a world map of trade clusters involving WTO countries and CIBS; ii) a comparison of the above clusters and their key characteristics in the last decade; and iii) the key drivers of clusters’ trends. The novelty of this study is twofold: first, it adopts a more comprehensive dataset for a wide range of countries and trade dimensions; second, it provides an evolutionary look at the clusters’ trends. The empirical results do not show neither a remarkable phenomenon of multi-polarization, nor evidence of CIBS as a significant separate group and/or regional agglomerationCIBS, trade patterns, trade specialization, cluster

Tariff Liberalisation and Trade Growth: a Comparative Historical Analysis to Assess the Multilateral Trading System

The aim of this work is to estimate the relationship between tariff barriers and trade growth at the world level applying a long-term approach and comparing different trade regimes. At the same time it aims at giving useful insights to assess the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading system in fostering international trade. The distinctive feature of this study is the use of a long term data set concerning tariffs and trade of twenty-three countries (which account for over 60 per cent of world trade of the entire period) for the 1870-2000 time span. Using times series and panel data analyses the author shows as the existence of a long run relationship between tariffs reduction and trade growth at the world level is quantitatively noteworthy exclusively in the period before the Second World War while it weakens starting from 1950. The empirical results do not controvert the role that the GATT/WTO system has played in the tariff reduction process but underline as its main effect has been linked to the creation of a rule-based environment governing global trade relations, through which uncertainty was reduced and the spread of best practices promoted.Tariffs; world trade; multilateral trading system; Gatt/WTO, time series; ECM

The effects of global value chain (GVC) participation on the economic growth of the agricultural and food sectors

Trade liberalization has long been advocated as a means to foster growth and welfare. In developing countries, the expansion of global value chain (GVC) participation of agriculture and food sectors could support transformation from a subsistence-oriented and farm-centred system to a commercialized, productive and off-farm centred one. While empirical evidence examining the linkages between GVC participation and economic performance in the agricultural sector has traditionally relied on case studies at the product level, the availability of new aggregate data on trade in value added, now provides an unprecedented opportunity to carry out a global empirical assessment of the linkages. The present paper examines new measures of GVCs participation and positioning from the EORA panel data for the period 1995–2015 (Nenci, 2020) and tests their effects on changes in agriculture value added per worker. The results show that changes in GVC participation are, on average and ceteris paribus, positively associated with changes in agriculture value added per worker, net to time-invariant confounders, whereas mixed results are found on the effects of countries’ positioning along the value chain. In the conclusive remarks, the authors argue that import tariff and non-tariff barriers – including barriers to service trade – should be seen as the first obstacle to increase GVC participation and improve domestic value added. The presence of signs of heterogeneity by geographical location confirms that general universal recipes do not exist

Are EU trade preferences really effective? A Generalized Propensity Score evaluation of the Southern Mediterranean countries' case in agriculture and fishery

The aim of this work is to assess the trade impact of preferential schemes. It focuses on the controversial case of the trade preferences in agriculture and fishery granted by the European Union (EU) to the Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) over the period 2004-2009. The analysis presents several methodological improvements on previous works. The results show that the impact of the EU preferences in agriculture and fishery granted to SMCs is significant on SMCs trade flows and that is better evaluated by using impact evaluation techniques. Findings raise important issues for policy-making by mitigating the claimed efficiency of the EU trade policy in the Mediterranean area.JRC.J.4-Agriculture and Life Sciences in the Econom

Liberalizzazione tariffaria e crescita degli scambi mondiali: un’analisi storica comparata per la valutazione del sistema commerciale multilaterale

The aim of this work is to estimate the relationship between tariff barriers and trade growth at the world level applying a long-term approach and comparing different trade regimes. At the same time it aims at giving useful insights to assess the effectiveness of the current multilateral trading system in fostering international trade. The distinctive feature of this study is the use of a long term data set concerning tariffs and trade of twenty-three countries (which account for over 60 per cent of world trade of the entire period) for the 1870-2000 time span. Using times series and panel data analyses the author shows as the existence of a long run relationship between tariffs reduction and trade growth at the world level is quantitatively noteworthy exclusively in the period before the Second World War while it weakens starting from 1950. The empirical results do not controvert the role that the GATT/WTO system has played in the tariff reduction process but underline as its main effect has been linked to the creation of a rule-based environment governing global trade relations, through which uncertainty was reduced and the spread of best practices promoted

THE “BEARABLE LIGHTNESS” OF BREXIT ON THE ACP COUNTRIES’ TRADE: GLOBAL VALUE CHAINS AND RULES OF ORIGIN

Brexit will impinge on the African, Caribbean and Pacific (ACP) countries currently governed by the Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) negotiated by the EU. The main reason for this is that UK incomes, and hence demand for ACP products, will be lower than expected over at least the next decade. • There is also a concern that the new Brexit-induced frictions on UK-EU trade will reduce the demand for ACP inputs into the goods that the UK and EU trade with each other: so-called “indirect effects” on exports. • Our empirical results show that, while these “indirect effects” on ACP countries’ exports may exist, their economic effects will be tiny in aggregate even in the case of a ‘No Deal’ Brexit. This is because the ACP countries supply only small amounts of inputs into the products involved in UK-EU trade. • In addition, we show that in one industry in which ACP inputs are important – cocoa products – concerns that rules of origin in a UK-EU free trade agreement may curtail ACP exports are unfounded. • There may be specific industries in specific ACP countries where “indirect effects” are material, but without specific information from those industries, we suggest that “indirect effects” should not be a major concern for policymakers in either the ACP countries or the UK

Agriculture and Food Global Value Chains in Sub-Saharan Africa: Does bilateral trade policy impact on backward and forward participation?

The most recent literature on international trade highlights the key role of global value chains (GVCs) in structural transformation, development and growth. The common perception is that Africa, unlike most Latin American and Asian countries, has neither been able to intercept the main changes in trade patterns nor enter massively into global production networks. This work provides some insight into this topic. Using the EORA Input-Output Tables, we analyze whether bilateral import tariffs and shifts in trade regimes associated with regional trade agreements affect the backward participation (i.e., the use of foreign inputs for exports) and forward participation (i.e., the use of domestic intermediates in third country exports) of the SSA countries’ agriculture and food GVCs. Our results show that, despite their low world trade shares, GVC participation in SSA economies is increasing over time, mainly upstream as suppliers of unprocessed inputs. Furthermore, we show that the value added demand for SSA agricultural products primarily originates from the EU and emerging countries rather than from regional partners. Finally, by making use of a “gravity-like” identification strategy, we also find evidence that bilateral trade protection significantly affects GVC backward and forward participation in agriculture and food. These results call for a refinement of trade policy priorities in SSA

Does trade policy impact food and agriculture global value chain participation of Sub-Saharan African countries?

The emergence of food and agriculture global value chains (GVCs) is challenging the way scholars look at trade data, as well as how policy makers establish their trade policies. The common perception is that Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries, unlike most Latin American and Asian countries, are not deeply integrated into global production networks. Consequently, it is believed that the border protection policies of the former may have a limited impact on GVC participation. This paper challenges this conventional knowledge in two ways. First, by decomposing bilateral gross export into its value added components, we show that the sectoral and bilateral SSA participation in GVC for food and agriculture is substantial. Second, we demonstrate that trade policies impact backward and forward value chain linkages. These results call for a refinement of trade policy priorities in SSA